Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-02 14:55Core Viewpoint - Tesla's dominance in the electric vehicle market has been overtaken by BYD, as Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries fell significantly, marking a 16% year-on-year decline, while BYD's sales continued to grow [1][2][7]. Group 1: Tesla's Performance - Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, which is a 16% decrease compared to the previous year, falling short of analyst expectations and the company's own targets [2][8]. - For the entire year, Tesla's total deliveries reached 1.64 million vehicles, while BYD delivered nearly 2.26 million pure electric vehicles [2][8]. - Tesla's market share in Europe has declined, with a 39% drop in new car registrations in 2025, contrasting with BYD's 240% increase in the same region [6][11]. Group 2: BYD's Growth - BYD has not only matched Tesla's performance but has also widened the gap, with its pure electric vehicle deliveries surpassing Tesla's in the fourth quarter of 2024 [6][11]. - Over the past two years, BYD has sold over 2 million plug-in hybrid vehicles annually, contributing to its growth [6][11]. - The acceptance of pure electric vehicles in Europe is increasing, with these vehicles accounting for approximately 16% of all new car sales in the region [6][11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts have become increasingly skeptical about Tesla's delivery forecasts for 2026, with expectations dropping from over 3 million to around 1.8 million [6][11]. - Despite the challenges, some analysts believe that Tesla's introduction of a cheaper Model Y variant could help regain market share in the coming quarters [6][11]. - Emerging markets like Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil are seeing rapid growth in electric vehicle penetration, which may provide Tesla with long-term opportunities despite fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers [6][11].