Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao·2026-01-02 14:58Core Viewpoint - Tesla's dominance in the electric vehicle market has been overtaken by BYD, with Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries declining by 16% year-over-year, totaling 418,227 vehicles, which fell short of analyst expectations and the company's own targets [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Performance - Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries decreased by 16% to 418,227 vehicles, not only missing analyst expectations but also failing to meet its own goals [2]. - For the entire year, Tesla delivered approximately 1.64 million vehicles, significantly lower than BYD's nearly 2.26 million deliveries [2]. - Tesla's market outlook for 2026 has become increasingly pessimistic, with average analyst expectations dropping from over 3 million deliveries two years ago to around 1.8 million [6]. Group 2: BYD's Growth - BYD has shown consistent growth in both quarterly and annual pure electric vehicle sales, with fourth-quarter deliveries surpassing Tesla's [4]. - In 2025, BYD's new car registration in Europe increased by 240%, while Tesla's registration decreased by 39% [6]. - BYD has also sold over 2 million plug-in hybrid vehicles in the past two years, further widening the gap with Tesla [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Tesla's market share in Europe is declining, with pure electric vehicles accounting for approximately 16% of all new car sales in the region [6]. - The introduction of a cheaper version of the Model Y in October may help Tesla regain some market share in the coming quarters [6]. - Emerging markets like Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil are seeing rapid growth in electric vehicle penetration, which could provide long-term opportunities for Tesla despite fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers [6].