Stock market today: Nasdaq, Dow, S&P 500 waver as Wall Street kicks off 2026

Market Performance - US stocks experienced fluctuations at the opening of 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining about 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.3% and the S&P 500 dropped below the flat line after an initial rise [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a more than 20% increase, marking a strong end to a volatile year [2] Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with all Wall Street forecasters predicting a rally for a fourth consecutive year, although risks such as a potential falter in the AI boom and economic surprises remain [3] - The Federal Reserve is a key focus for 2026, with expectations that interest rates will remain steady in the near term, although there are mixed opinions regarding future meetings [5] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum prices crossed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [4] - The anticipated "Santa Claus rally" has not materialized, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1% during the last trading days of December and the first days of January [4]