新年书单 | 技术、泡沫与权力（2026）(申万宏观·赵伟团队)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors and investment banks, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook, highlighting concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and the prospects for AI application and profitability [4]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - Since the emergence of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, AI has been a major theme in capital markets, with companies like Nvidia seeing their stock prices and valuations reach new highs [4]. - There are growing concerns among investors regarding the volatility in capital markets, influenced by financing gaps in some US AI firms and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Technological and Economic Paradigms - The article emphasizes the need for a macro perspective to deconstruct the "AI bubble," integrating a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that views technological innovation as interconnected with economic and social evolution [5]. - Historical experiences since the Industrial Revolution indicate that core countries often lead in innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [6]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article recommends 20 classic books categorized into three units: - Technology: Focuses on the essence of technology, diffusion of innovation, and conditions for innovation-friendly institutions [6]. - Economy: Concentrates on economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, including several works on American economic history [6]. - Power: Addresses how technology shapes the global system [6].