MSTR Stock Faces January 15 MSCI Index Deadline after 50% Drop in 2025, What’s in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - MSTR stock has experienced significant declines, losing its premium over Bitcoin and facing potential exclusion from the MSCI Index by January 15, 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - MSTR stock has reached a new 52-week low at $151.95, down over 65% from its peak of $450 in July 2025 [2]. - The stock has faced major selling pressure, particularly in Q4 2025, leading to a market cap erosion of more than $90 billion [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The price of Bitcoin has dropped to $87,000, contributing to the negative performance of MSTR stock [2]. - There is rising pessimism in the crypto market, with ongoing shareholder dilution concerns as the company issues new shares to fund Bitcoin purchases [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - MSTR plans to deploy an additional $11 billion through at-the-market (ATM) offerings [5]. - Despite the challenges, analysts suggest that even if Bitcoin falls to $74,000, the estimated value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings would still be around $49.8 billion, exceeding the company's liabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Institutional Interest - There are indications of renewed institutional interest in MSTR stock, with the company not using margin loans or having collateral-backed Bitcoin debt, thus avoiding direct liquidation triggers related to Bitcoin's price [7].