2020年以来最大年度跌幅后，油价小幅走低

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight decline on the first trading day of 2026, following the largest annual drop since 2020, as investors weighed concerns over supply surplus against geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine war and issues with Venezuelan exports [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On the first trading day of 2026, Brent crude oil contracts fell by $0.10 to $60.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also decreased by $0.10 to $57.32 per barrel [1][2]. - In 2025, both Brent and WTI benchmark crude prices recorded nearly a 20% annual decline, marking the most severe drop since 2020, primarily due to concerns over supply surplus and tariff issues overshadowing geopolitical risks [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations led by U.S. President Donald Trump aim to end the nearly four-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, yet both nations continue to accuse each other of civilian attacks [1][2]. - In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to cut off funding for Moscow's military operations in Ukraine [3]. - The U.S. government has increased pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, imposing sanctions on four companies and their associated tankers operating in the Venezuelan oil industry [3]. Group 3: OPEC+ Outlook - Analysts from Sparta Commodities indicate that traders generally expect OPEC+ to continue its production freeze in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - DBS Bank's energy analyst forecasts that Brent oil prices will remain relatively stable in 2026, fluctuating between $60 and $65 per barrel [4].