Analyst who nailed 2020 lows drops take on S&P 500

Core Viewpoint - Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson predicts a modest upside for the S&P 500, estimating a target of 7,150, which represents a 5% increase, but anticipates a choppy market ahead that will test investor patience [1][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Johnson expects the S&P 500 to experience a "jump, slump, and pump" pattern rather than a smooth upward trajectory, even with the influence of AI on stock prices [3][5]. - The market is anticipated to grind higher throughout the year, but not in the manner most investors desire, as early momentum may fade into a weaker middle period due to political noise and investor fatigue [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Volatility - Midterm election years are historically volatile for U.S. stocks, with turbulence linked to political power shifts and policy uncertainty [7]. - The S&P 500 has shown an average return of 14% with a split Congress, compared to nearly 10% under unified Democratic control since 1932, indicating that political dynamics significantly impact market performance [7]. - The pre-midterm period typically sees weak gains, with the S&P 500 averaging only 0.3% in the 12 months leading up to midterms, which is significantly lower than the long-term average of 8.1% [7].