观点：加密市场不奖励追随者，只奖励看透幻象的人

Core Insights - The essence of cryptocurrency is belief, functioning as a financial tool that extracts hope from humanity and converts it into liquidity [1] - The price discovery of cryptocurrencies is driven by market sentiment rather than practical value, leading to a cycle of hype and subsequent corrections [2] Price Discovery - The initial phase of price discovery is dominated by speculation, with little to no actual application, leading to a rapid price increase based on community narratives [2] - Following this, a harsh correction phase eliminates weak holders and reveals the reality behind speculative investments [2] Market Dynamics - A significant downturn often marks a critical turning point, where projects lacking real demand fade away, while a few tokens survive to enter a phase of slow growth driven by actual demand [2] - The future of most tokens appears bleak as private enterprises begin to tokenize equity and raise liquidity directly on-chain, rendering most cryptocurrencies worthless [5] Psychological Manipulation - Cryptocurrencies are designed to manipulate human behavior, with token supply mechanisms controlling hope and emotional responses [6] - The true product of these projects is not the token itself but the belief it generates, targeting human emotions such as fear and desire [6] Speculation vs. Utility - Speculation drives token growth rather than practical utility, with attention being more critical than actual application or revenue [7] - Projects that fail to maintain user engagement and focus solely on price will ultimately collapse [7] Exit Liquidity - Retail investors often become exit liquidity for insiders, as they buy tokens after the initial investors have already established their positions [9] - The price discovery process is manipulated by a coordinated effort among venture capitalists, exchanges, and influencers, leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [9] Future Segmentation - The cryptocurrency landscape is splitting into regulated and unregulated sectors, with the former being government-controlled and the latter remaining raw and decentralized [10] - Only tokens tied to real applications and cash flows are likely to survive, while those lacking substance will disappear [10] Conclusion - The cryptocurrency market rewards those who can see through illusions rather than followers who chase hype [11] - The upcoming market phase will test investors' beliefs, timing, patience, and ability to discern truth amidst noise [11]