供应比较宽松 尿素期货震荡交易思路为主

Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market is experiencing a stable yet cautious environment, with prices showing slight fluctuations and supply conditions remaining relatively loose [1][4]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main urea futures contract closed at 1749 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 8168 contracts [1]. - During the week of December 29 to December 31, the urea futures opened at 1729 CNY/ton, peaked at 1763 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 1721 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.81% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 31, Yanzhou Coal Mining's urea factory in Xinjiang quoted a price of 1310 CNY/ton with a production capacity of 520,000 tons, while Kuitun Jinjian's urea factory quoted 1350 CNY/ton with a capacity of 700,000 tons, both operating normally [2]. - As of December 24, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 106.89 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons or 9.39% from the previous week [2]. - The port inventory of urea samples in China was 17.7 million tons, which increased by 30,000 tons or 28.2% compared to the previous week [2]. Futures Market Activity - On December 30, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange recorded 12,381 urea futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 1,631 receipts from the previous trading day [2]. - Over the past week, the total growth of urea futures warehouse receipts was 1,849, representing a growth rate of 17.56%, while the monthly increase reached 4,794 receipts, marking a 63.19% rise [2]. Institutional Insights - Guosen Futures noted that the overall urea market is in a state of loose supply, with the current operating rate of urea production enterprises at 81.6%, slightly down but still within a high range [4]. - Demand remains weak, particularly in agriculture, leading to a market characterized by sporadic replenishment [4]. - Everbright Futures indicated that short-term supply and demand changes are limited, with the futures market showing resilience due to external influences, but lacking sustained upward momentum [4].