农业农村部月报：预计春节前猪价稳中略涨

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a peak in supply due to high pig slaughter rates, while demand is also increasing as the holiday season approaches, leading to a stable yet slightly rising trend in pork prices. Group 1: Pig Prices and Supply - Pig prices have slightly decreased, with a stable slaughter rhythm and alleviated overcapacity pressure. In October, the slaughter volume reached 38.34 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1] - The average market price for pork in November was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 19.7% year-on-year. The average market price for live pigs was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month and down 27.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pig Grain Ratio - The pig-to-grain price ratio has increased slightly to 5.44:1 in November, up by 0.07 points from the previous month, although it remains below 5.5:1. The price of feed corn was 2.43 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 3.3% year-on-year [2] - Farmers are facing losses, with self-breeding farmers losing an average of 80 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets for fattening losing about 270 yuan per pig [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - In October, China's imports of fresh and frozen pork were 71,100 tons, down 11.1% month-on-month and down 21.1% year-on-year, with an import value of 144 million USD, down 11.7% month-on-month and down 25.0% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative imports from January to October were 859,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while exports increased significantly by 51.6% to 33,200 tons [3] Group 4: European Market Trends - European pork prices have been declining for four consecutive months due to increased production, export obstacles, and seasonal consumption declines, with wholesale prices at 1,700.45 euros per ton, down 4.7% month-on-month and down 11.8% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Price Expectations - As the supply of pigs reaches its annual peak and with effective measures in place to control production, pork prices are expected to remain stable with slight increases leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by rising consumer demand during the holiday season [5]