元旦小长假后 油脂开门红？

Group 1 - Domestic oilseed prices are experiencing a lack of upward momentum, with the three major oilseeds maintaining a range-bound consolidation during the New Year holiday [2][9] - The CBOT soybean futures market is primarily in a downward trend due to weak export demand and expectations of a bumper crop in South America, particularly Brazil [2][9] - China has reportedly purchased at least 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans for 2025, approaching a target of 12 million tons, but uncertainties regarding the formal trade agreement with the U.S. are pressuring soybean prices [2][9] Group 2 - Malaysian palm oil futures have declined by 2.42% this week, with a nearly 9% drop over the past year, driven by increased supply and competitive pressures from Indonesia [3][10] - The Malaysian palm oil export volume in December is reported to have decreased by 5.2% to 5.8% month-on-month, limiting price increases [3][10] - The Brent crude oil price has fallen nearly 18% over the year, exacerbating concerns about oversupply and reducing the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock [3][10] Group 3 - Domestic oilseed basis remains stable, with downstream replenishment being reasonable due to the New Year holiday, with various regional basis levels reported [5][11] - The market is expected to maintain a firm basis despite the low profitability background, as manufacturers may support basis prices [6][12] - The first quarter is anticipated to see a decrease in soybean arrivals, but directed imports and ongoing releases can meet market demand [6][12]