告别2025去产能周期！2026猪价将止跌回升？涨价信号来了！

Core Insights - The livestock industry in 2025 experienced a steady progression amid policy adjustments and technological innovations, with "stabilizing production capacity, reducing costs, and strengthening technology" as the main themes [1] - The pig price showed a downward trend throughout the year, raising concerns about whether it would recover in 2026 [1] 2025 Review - The average price of lean pigs in China was 13.80 yuan/kg by December 22, 2025, a significant decrease of 17.66% year-on-year [2] - The price trend for 2025 was characterized by a "decline followed by stabilization and then further decline," with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan/kg on January 4 and the lowest at 10.72 yuan/kg on October 13 [2] - The core reason for the declining pig prices was the imbalance between supply and demand, with supply increasing significantly due to a release of production capacity [2] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 8.5264 million, a 5.61% increase compared to the previous cycle, leading to a total pig output of 168.965 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.58% [2] Demand Dynamics - Although there was a recovery in demand throughout the year, the growth was limited and insufficient to support a rise in pig prices [2] - The average daily slaughter volume was 175,700 heads, a 9.27% increase year-on-year, but this was primarily driven by increased output rather than a significant rise in demand [2] Ten Key Terms of 2025 - The ten key terms reflect a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the livestock industry, laying the groundwork for 2026 [3][4][5] 1. De-capacity of Breeding Pigs: A core regulatory policy aimed at stabilizing the number of breeding sows at 39 million [3] 2. Going Global: Leading enterprises are expanding internationally, marking the beginning of a "great navigation era" for Chinese agriculture [3] 3. Liquid Precision Feeding: A technology aimed at improving efficiency and reducing feed costs [4] 4. Reduction of Soybean Meal: A national strategy to ensure food security, with leading companies reducing soybean meal content in feed [4] 5. Smart Farming: The integration of AI and IoT to enhance farm management [4] 6. Support for Beef/Dairy Industries: Policies to assist struggling cattle and sheep farmers [4] 7. Precise Disease Prevention: A shift towards regular disease control measures [4] 8. Green Farming: Emphasis on sustainable practices [4] 9. Standardization: Initiatives to enhance regulatory compliance in the slaughter industry [4] 10. Quality Improvement and Efficiency: A focus on refined management and technological upgrades [4] 2026 Outlook - The pig price is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, with a potential turning point in the second quarter [6] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 9.1831 million, an 8.54% increase compared to the previous cycle, indicating continued supply pressure in early 2026 [6] - Demand is likely to remain passive, with seasonal fluctuations affecting the market [6] - The average price in the first half of 2026 is projected to fluctuate between 11.4 and 11.8 yuan/kg, with a potential rebound in the second half of the year [7] - The competition among pig enterprises will increasingly focus on internal capabilities, with a shift towards low-cost, high-tech operations [7] Summary - The livestock industry navigated a challenging year in 2025, with significant price fluctuations and a focus on transformation [8] - The anticipated "low first, high later" price trend for 2026 suggests cautious optimism, with key indicators such as breeding sow inventory and slaughter volume being critical for production planning [8]