华尔街和科技圈2026年十大预测：AI泡沫恐破灭，三大超级IPO来袭，量子计算或颠覆加密货币

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Predictions - The U.S. stock market is expected to continue its bull run in 2025, but it lagged behind international markets, with the MSCI ex-US index rising approximately 29% compared to the S&P 500's 16% increase, marking the largest gap since 2009 [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points in the next 12 months, representing a 14% increase from the current level of 6858 points [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 7600 points by the end of 2026, while Bank of America estimates a modest increase of 4%-5%, targeting 7100 points [4] Group 2: AI Industry Outlook - There are contrasting views on the AI sector, with some economists predicting a potential bubble burst due to rising interest rates, which could end the current over-investment driven by AI capital expenditures [7] - Conversely, proponents argue that AI has initiated a new industrial era, contributing significantly to GDP growth and creating real jobs and sales [8] Group 3: Upcoming IPOs - Major companies like OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic are planning IPOs in 2026, with SpaceX currently valued at $800 billion and OpenAI preparing for a potential $500 billion valuation [10] Group 4: Key AI Companies to Watch - Analysts have identified five AI companies expected to be market focal points in 2026: Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Palantir, and CrowdStrike, each with unique growth drivers and market potential [11] Group 5: Quantum Computing Developments - 2026 is anticipated to be a milestone year for quantum computing, with expectations that quantum computers will surpass traditional ones in specific tasks, enhancing their commercial value [13] Group 6: Economic Predictions and Risks - Notable economists predict a significant economic crisis in 2026, with potential risks including underperformance in the AI sector, credit defaults, and unexpected monetary policy shifts from the Federal Reserve [20][22]