Bitcoin May Already Be Two Months Into a Bear Market: CryptoQuant

Core Insights - Bitcoin may have entered a bear market approximately two months ago, as indicated by technical and on-chain indicators that turned bearish in early November [1][8] - The CryptoQuant bull score index has been signaling warning signs for several weeks, tracking metrics such as network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity [2] Technical Indicators - A significant signal of the trend shift is Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average, which is commonly used to differentiate between uptrends and downtrends [3][4] - Bitcoin's price action supports this bearish view, having started 2025 near $93,000, peaked at around $126,080 in October, and then ended the year below its opening level, trading near $88,500 as of Friday [4] Market Expectations - If the current phase is indeed a bear market, it contradicts expectations for strong growth in 2026, suggesting the market may still be finding a bottom [5] - Based on Bitcoin's realized price, a potential bear market low is estimated to be in the $56,000 to $60,000 range over the next year [5][6] Historical Context - A decline to the estimated range would represent a drawdown of approximately 55% from Bitcoin's all-time high, which is considered mild compared to historical standards where previous bear markets saw losses of 70% to 80% [7]