机构：2025年核心城市二手房成交量维持稳定规模，改善需求成新房市场核心支撑

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with second-hand housing in core cities maintaining stability through "price for volume" strategies, while improvement demand becomes the main support for the new housing market [1] Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 30 key cities is estimated to be around 1.74 million units, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown, with a 13% year-on-year growth in September [1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the total market reached approximately 65% in 2025, an increase of 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] Group 2: New Housing Market - Improvement housing demand is a significant support for the new housing market, with larger units (120-144 square meters) seeing an increase in transaction share across 30 representative cities [3] - The average clearing cycle for available inventory in 50 cities is 22.2 months, indicating a slow-moving market [3] - New housing prices in 100 cities have increased by 2.58% due to the entry of improvement-type properties, while second-hand housing prices have decreased by 8.36% cumulatively [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - A policy optimization announced in December 2025 in Beijing aims to stimulate the market by lowering purchase requirements for non-local families and supporting multi-child families [4] - Following the new policy, the average daily signing volume for new and second-hand homes in Beijing increased by 72.8% and 37.4% respectively compared to the previous period [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, which will impact the sale of homes purchased less than two years ago [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that policies will continue to be implemented in 2026 to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on demand stimulation and supply optimization [6] - The overall market is still in a "de-stocking" phase, with limited new housing supply in most cities, while core cities maintain a certain level of new supply [6]