MicroStrategy’s Stock Slid Over 49% in 2025: Why 2026 Could Be Another Tough Year

Core Viewpoint - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock (MSTR) faced significant challenges in 2025, declining 49.3% due to sustained selling pressure and uncertainty regarding its potential exclusion from the MSCI index [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - MSTR lost 49.3% of its value in 2025, with losses accelerating in the second half of the year [2]. - Over the past six months, MSTR has fallen 66%, resulting in nearly $90 billion being wiped from the company's market capitalization [3]. Group 2: Bitcoin Exposure - Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, owning 672,497 BTC, which is approximately 3.2% of Bitcoin's total supply [4]. - The company has spent over $50 billion accumulating Bitcoin, primarily financed through debt issuance and stock sales [4]. - Currently, Strategy holds roughly $59 billion worth of Bitcoin, while its total market capitalization is about $46 billion, indicating a valuation concern [5]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Risks - MSTR is trading at a 20% to 25% discount compared to the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings [5]. - Factors contributing to the stock's struggles include aggressive share dilution, index removal risks, potential delisting pressure, and a full collapse of the NAV premium [5]. - The firm maintains that its balance sheet is strong enough to withstand major downturns in Bitcoin's price, with a BTC Rating indicating 5.9x assets to convertible debt at a $74,000 average cost basis [6].