黄金市场，新变化！

Core Viewpoint - The gold consumption market is entering a traditional peak season, but high gold prices are leading to a cautious consumer attitude, resulting in decreased sales and reduced bank borrowing by major jewelry companies [2][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major gold stores are offering significant promotions for the New Year, but consumer interest is low due to high gold prices [2][10]. - Gold sold by major stores comes from three main sources: direct purchase from exchanges, bank borrowing, and wholesale from the Shenzhen market [2][10]. - The sales volume of gold jewelry has noticeably declined since 2025 due to rising gold prices, prompting many jewelry companies to significantly reduce their bank borrowing activities [3][11]. Group 2: Borrowing Practices - Bank borrowing is a common practice in the industry, involving leasing gold at an agreed price for processing and sales, with repayment occurring after sales [4][12]. - The current high gold prices have made it difficult for companies to complete borrowing cycles that previously took 2-3 months, leading to a substantial reduction in borrowing activities [4][12]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Some jewelry brands are closing underperforming stores while opening flagship stores in prime urban locations to target the high-end market [5][13]. - The rise of domestic luxury brands has created opportunities for gold brands to adopt a high-end strategy, as the price of gold now rivals that of many luxury items [5][13]. Group 4: Price Forecasts - Institutions generally believe that there is still potential for gold prices to rise, but risks for ordinary consumers and investors are increasing [5][13]. - The World Gold Council's report outlines four potential scenarios for gold prices in 2026, ranging from a 5% decline to a 30% increase depending on economic conditions [5][13]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce in 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks amid geopolitical tensions [6][14].