U.S. stocks had a terrible year (relatively speaking)—you could have bet on Greece in 2025 and come out ahead

Core Insights - The S&P 500 rose 16.5% in 2025, but underperformed compared to other global indexes, with the FTSE 100 up 21%, DAX up 23%, and IBEX 35 up 48% [1][2] - South Korea's KOSPI saw the highest increase at 75.6%, while gold and silver also performed exceptionally well, rising 65% and 147% respectively [2][3] - The S&P 500's gains were largely driven by a small number of tech stocks, leading investors to seek diversification in foreign markets [5][6] Performance Comparison - The S&P 500's performance was mediocre relative to other asset classes, with the Athex Composite in Greece up 45% [4] - Investors in U.S. equities lagged behind those betting on foreign stocks and precious metals, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] Market Dynamics - The dominance of AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 has prompted investors to hedge by investing in non-U.S. markets, which are less tech-heavy [5][6] - The U.K.'s FTSE is characterized by a focus on banks and mining companies, contrasting with the tech-heavy S&P 500 [6] Future Projections - Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,700 by the end of the year, representing an 11% increase [7] - Historical data suggests that after three consecutive years of 15%+ gains, the average return for the following year is about 8%, with a typical max drawdown of around 14% [8]