重返现场③关税变局下 外贸大省如何转型与破局

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "tariff war" initiated by the United States is significantly impacting China's foreign trade, particularly in Guangdong province, which is facing immense pressure on orders, profits, and supply chains due to soaring tariffs reaching up to 145% [1]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - A packaging company in Dongguan has adapted to the challenges, achieving a sales increase from over 60 million yuan in 2023 to an expected 130 million yuan in 2025 by adjusting its market structure and focusing on quality and customization [5][8]. - A Shenzhen supply chain company reported a significant drop in shipping volumes to the U.S. in April 2025, with traditional foreign trade clients and cross-border e-commerce sellers initially halting operations due to the tariff war [7]. - Different companies are employing various strategies to cope with the tariff impacts, such as pre-stocking, expanding into European markets, and investing in equipment to enhance future capabilities [9]. Group 2: Market Adjustments and Opportunities - The resilience of Chinese foreign trade is supported by a complete manufacturing system and efficient supply chain capabilities, allowing for rapid responses to global customer demands, which many overseas markets cannot replicate [10]. - Emerging markets are becoming new growth engines, with a cross-border e-commerce platform focusing on Southeast Asia reporting strong sales in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, indicating a shift in market focus from traditional Western markets [12]. - Despite uncertainties, companies are adopting a cautious approach, with the fourth quarter of 2025 expected to underperform compared to previous years, leading to a consensus on prioritizing stability [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Guangdong foreign trade companies are navigating the challenges of the tariff changes by pursuing technological upgrades, market diversification, and digital transformation to enhance their resilience against risks [15]. - The dual release of demographic and digital dividends in emerging markets is driving demand for new infrastructure, positioning these markets as both manufacturing destinations and direct consumer targets [16]. - The path of foreign trade remains turbulent, but through continuous adjustment and innovation, Chinese foreign trade companies are demonstrating that resilience is the key to overcoming cyclical challenges [18].