多晶硅期货狂飙，空头遭逼仓后巨亏

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" trend has significantly driven the multi-crystalline silicon futures market, with prices surging over 85% since June 2025, reaching a peak of 63,000 yuan/ton [1][15] - Market dynamics shifted due to policy expectations and increased capital inflow, leading to a substantial rise in futures prices [2][3] - Despite an overall supply surplus in the industry, the futures prices continued to rise, raising questions about the underlying market logic [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market experienced a dramatic price increase from around 31,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 to over 63,000 yuan/ton by December 2025, marking a significant recovery from earlier lows [1][15] - The establishment of a storage platform and industry self-regulation initiatives have been pivotal in changing market expectations and driving prices higher [3][4] - The market saw a shift in trading logic in November 2025, with a significant reduction in warehouse receipts leading to increased bullish sentiment [2][3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors, particularly those holding short positions, faced severe losses as prices surged, with one investor reporting losses of up to 1.3 million to 1.5 million yuan [10][12] - The volatility in the market has led to a psychological impact on traders, with some choosing to exit positions under extreme pressure [7][10] - The market's structural shortage of deliverable goods has exacerbated the situation for short sellers, limiting their ability to correct price discrepancies through physical delivery [11][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the multi-crystalline silicon industry may continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with supply growth expected at 3.7% and demand potentially decreasing by 10% in 2026 [16] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with ongoing debates about the effectiveness of policy measures and their impact on pricing mechanisms [16] - The ability of the industry to maintain profitability will hinge on whether costs can be effectively passed through to the end market, particularly in the context of solar module pricing [16]