Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-03 14:04Group 1: Morgan Stanley's Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in China for 2026, supported by real estate policies to stabilize the economy [1] - Three positive changes are expected to boost confidence: flexible policies, resilient corporate performance in sectors like AI and biopharmaceuticals, and increased foreign investment interest in Chinese assets [1] - The firm predicts that China's exports will remain relatively strong, with a key variable being domestic demand policies [1] Group 2: UBS's Market Perspective - UBS believes that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market will continue into 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [2] - Structural changes are expected to propel Chinese stocks, with AI and technology being key long-term growth drivers [2] - UBS forecasts a 37% growth in earnings per share for the Hang Seng Tech Index in 2026, supported by strong liquidity and favorable policies [2] Group 3: Goldman Sachs on Commodity Prices - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and a potential Fed rate cut cycle [3] - The firm estimates that central bank gold purchases will average around 70 tons per month in 2026, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases [3] - In industrial metals, Goldman Sachs favors copper due to constrained supply and growing demand, maintaining a long-term price target of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [3] Group 4: Nomura's Economic Growth Forecast - Nomura expects AI-driven investment trends and supportive monetary and fiscal policies to continue driving strong global economic growth in 2026 [5] - The firm notes that despite reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal policy space, the investment momentum from AI will lay a strong foundation for economic performance [5] - Nomura anticipates signs of stability and accelerated growth in the global economy for 2026, although growth will remain uneven across regions [5]