特稿｜2026，世界经济五问

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2026 due to persistent uncertainties, protectionist measures, and labor supply imbalances [1] - Some analysts predict that the global economy may show signs of stability and even accelerated growth driven by AI investments and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [1] - The U.S. economic outlook is pessimistic, with structural instability and accumulated risks becoming more evident [1] Group 2: Trade and Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. high tariff policies are expected to lead to new trade frictions, dragging down global investment and trade prospects for 2026 [3] - The World Trade Organization has significantly lowered its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from 2.4% in 2025 [3] - Rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions are prompting companies to reassess their global supply chains, leading to a trend of localization and regionalization [3] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Impact - Global investment in AI is projected to exceed $2 trillion by 2026, indicating a significant shift in the economic landscape [4] - AI is expected to create new growth momentum while also posing structural adjustment challenges, with potential short-term investment bubbles and increased income inequality [4][5] - Long-term, AI is seen as a key driver for productivity improvements and the emergence of new industries and job opportunities [5] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy Effects - Monetary policies among major developed economies are expected to diverge, with the U.S. likely to continue easing, while the European Central Bank approaches the end of its rate-cutting cycle [6] - The U.S. monetary policy adjustments could introduce new uncertainties in global capital flows and asset pricing [6] - Concerns over high public debt in developed economies are rising, with potential implications for bond markets and fiscal stability [6] Group 5: China's Economic Prospects - China's economy is expected to demonstrate resilience despite external pressures, supported by its institutional advantages and large market size [7] - The focus for China in 2026 will be on building a strong domestic market and increasing investments in technology sectors like AI [7][8] - China's role as a global economic engine is anticipated to strengthen, contributing significantly to global economic growth [8][9]