Roundhill’s AI ETF Rips 45% Higher As The AI Buildout Continues In 2026

Core Viewpoint - The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) significantly outperformed major indices in 2025, with a 45% increase compared to the S&P 500's 17% and Nasdaq-100's 21% gains, with its future performance closely tied to hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure [2][3]. Group 1: Hyperscaler Capital Spending - Capital expenditure (capex) by major cloud providers is the primary macro factor influencing CHAT's performance, with 2026 estimates rising to $527 billion from $465 billion at the beginning of Q3 earnings season [3][5]. - Analysts have consistently underestimated the willingness of Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta to invest in AI infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Fund Holdings and Performance - CHAT has significant positions in major hyperscalers, with Alphabet as the largest holding at 7.6%, followed by Microsoft at 5.1%, Meta at 4.2%, and Amazon at 3.4% [4]. - The fund has returned 51% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 17% [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Selectivity - The market has become more selective, moving away from AI infrastructure companies with pressured operating earnings growth, seeking a clear connection between capex and revenue growth [7]. Group 4: Concentration in Semiconductor Sector - CHAT has a heavy concentration in semiconductor companies, with Nvidia at 6.3%, Advanced Micro Devices at 3.3%, Broadcom at 3.0%, and SK Hynix at 3.2%, indicating significant exposure to the semiconductor cycle [8].