Modest US Hiring to Cap a Sluggish Year for the Job Market

Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release November job openings, quitting, and layoffs data, alongside the December jobs report [2] - Economists project that approximately 60,000 jobs were added in December, resulting in a total of about 670,000 jobs added for 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% in December from a four-year high, indicating a modest employment growth trend [5] Inflation Trends - In the euro zone, inflation reports for Germany and France are due, with expectations that the headline inflation will stabilize at 2% and core inflation at 2.4% [6][7] - Switzerland's inflation is predicted to slightly increase to 0.1% after an unexpected drop to zero in November, which aligns with the central bank's forecast [11] - Australia's CPI figures are expected to show a modest easing of inflation, remaining above the central bank's target, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy stance [14] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with upcoming data likely supporting the stabilization of inflation at target levels [7][8] - In Latin America, central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico may consider mild adjustments to monetary policy, while Brazil is positioned for aggressive unwinding of rates [17][18] - Peru's central bank may hold rates at 4.25% due to inflation running below the target range, reflecting a cautious approach amid upcoming elections [19] Sector-Specific Insights - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is seen as a limiting factor for payroll growth, as companies focus on enhancing productivity [3] - Employers have slowed hiring in 2025, indicating a stabilization in job openings and a cautious approach to additional hiring due to government trade-policy announcements [4]