2026年度策略：关注供需格局，布局航空、干散货海运、油运

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector's performance is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with expectations of recovery in imports and exports boosting port throughput and cross-border logistics demand, while consumption and infrastructure investment recovery support the revival of express and logistics demand [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The industry strategy suggests a positive outlook on policies, recommending investments in aviation, dry bulk shipping, and oil transportation. The recovery in demand and supply constraints are expected to create structural opportunities in the transportation sector [2]. - Specific recommendations include: 1. Aviation: Limited supply growth with a gradual demand recovery, indicating a potential turning point in supply-demand dynamics, leading to increased ticket prices and profitability [2][3]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipping: Continued supply constraints with improving demand structure, suggesting a basis for rising freight rates [2][4]. 3. Oil Transportation: Supply constraints combined with improving demand structure are expected to sustain high industry profitability [2][5]. Industry Insights - Aviation: The industry is expected to reach a supply-demand turning point by 2025, with capacity utilization during peak seasons exceeding 2019 levels. Supply growth is projected to be only 17% by the end of 2025 compared to 2019, while demand is expected to grow by 4.7% [3]. - Dry Bulk Shipping: The sector is characterized by limited supply and improving demand structure, with global dry bulk trade volume expected to grow moderately. The freight rate is anticipated to rise significantly by the end of 2025 [4]. - Oil Transportation: The industry is projected to maintain a high level of profitability through 2025-2026, driven by supply constraints and structural demand improvements, with historical trends indicating a correlation between freight rates and shipowner profitability [5].