Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 edge higher to kick off 2026, semiconductor stocks rally

Market Performance - US stocks mostly edged higher on the first trading day of 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining about 0.6% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.2% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell below the flat line despite gains in semiconductor companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Micron [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite led with a more than 20% increase [2] Economic Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with Wall Street forecasters predicting a fourth consecutive year of stock market rallies [3] - However, risks remain, including potential faltering of the AI boom, surprises in the US economy, and uncertainties surrounding President Trump's tariffs [3] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum crossed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [4] - The S&P 500 is down nearly 1% during the "Santa Claus rally" period, indicating a potential third consecutive down period for this seasonal trend [4] Federal Reserve Focus - The Federal Reserve remains a key focus for Wall Street in 2026, with ongoing divisions expected to continue from 2025 [5] - President Trump is expected to appoint a new chair to replace Jerome Powell, while traders anticipate the central bank will hold steady on interest rates later this month [5]