Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2026-01-04 02:01Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is expected to experience a shift in investment dynamics due to policy stimuli and emerging themes, with private enterprises showing significant returns compared to state-owned and central enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 30, 2025, the SW Construction Decoration Index increased by 8.88%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 18.19%, indicating that the overall performance of the construction sector lagged behind the broader market [2]. - Private enterprises achieved a return of 35.6%, while local state-owned enterprises had a return of 14.96%, closely aligning with the CSI 300 Index. In contrast, central state-owned enterprises faced a significant decline with a return of -4.51% [2]. Group 2: Future Investment Outlook - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to open an investment uptrend, as historical patterns suggest that the initial years of a five-year plan typically see heightened investment intensity [2]. - Major planning and project packages are expected to be implemented in 2026, potentially leading to a new cycle characterized by "high initial growth followed by stabilization" [2]. Group 3: Value Investment Themes - Three main value investment themes are identified: 1. Key projects such as the Pinglu/Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal (total investment approximately 621.1 billion), the Tibet Railway (expected total investment over 700 billion), and the Yaxi Hydropower Project (total investment around 1.2 trillion) are projected to generate long-term orders [3]. 2. High dividend yields are emphasized as regulatory measures strengthen dividend constraints, enhancing the investment appeal of low-valuation, high-dividend construction firms [3]. 3. Growth transformation opportunities in new sectors like clean rooms, AI computing infrastructure, and low-altitude economy are expected to surge, with cash-rich private enterprises likely to pursue mergers and acquisitions for rapid entry [3]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Specific stocks to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039), Jianghe Group (601886), Honglu Steel Structure (002541), Jinggong Steel Structure (600496), and Pudong Construction (600284) [3].