诺德基金行业研究员许哲文：Robotaxi产业发展进入加速期

Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is entering an accelerated development phase due to the maturity of autonomous driving technology and the relaxation of regulations, particularly in major Chinese cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][9] - Robotaxi, defined as "autonomous driving taxis" utilizing L4/L5 level autonomous systems, is expected to reach a market size of nearly 300 billion yuan by 2025, with long-term potential in the trillions [1][9] Technology - L4 autonomous driving technology is gradually maturing, with leading companies in the U.S. achieving an average mileage of nearly 10,000 miles in road tests, and accident rates significantly lower than human drivers [2][10] Policy - National policies are continuously advancing, with local regulations being refined. The Ministry of Transport issued guidelines for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles in December 2023, outlining requirements for application scenarios, safety measures, and vehicle specifications [3][11] - The government is also accelerating the development of supporting infrastructure for Robotaxi, including the "vehicle-road-cloud" integration initiatives [3][11] Cost - Lower-cost vehicles are expected to be mass-produced and launched by 2026, which is crucial for achieving a positive unit economic model. The cost of complete vehicles may drop to around 150,000 yuan [5][13] - The price of lidar components has significantly decreased, from over 100,000 yuan to the thousand-yuan range, allowing the overall lidar cost for vehicles to potentially fall to around 10,000 yuan [5][13] - The Robotaxi market is anticipated to penetrate rapidly by 2026, with increased vehicle density and reduced costs leading to higher daily order volumes and lower operational costs [6][13]