中欧瑞博|伟志思考：2026年展望--感恩时代拥抱牛市

Group 1 - In 2025, the global capital markets and China's assets performed exceptionally well, with significant increases in major indices such as the CSI 300 and the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 17.66% and 27.77% respectively [1][16] - The year marked a turning point for China, as it navigated through trade wars and technological blockades, leading to a more confident outlook for the future [2][16] - The trade surplus for China reached a historic high of $1.076 trillion in the first eleven months, showcasing the country's competitive advantage in manufacturing [6][20] Group 2 - The stability in China-US relations in 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment, establishing a G2 world order and reducing trade tensions [4][18] - China's technology sector experienced a "Sputnik moment," with significant advancements in high-end chip production and breakthroughs in AI, challenging the previous notion that the US dominated technology [5][19] - The biopharmaceutical sector in China saw remarkable growth, with Chinese companies participating in over $1.3 trillion of global innovative drug business development transactions [6][19] Group 3 - The capital market in China showed signs of recovery, with various investment styles yielding positive returns, indicating a potential shift towards a long-term bull market [8][21] - The market's resilience was highlighted by its ability to stabilize amidst external shocks, avoiding the pitfalls of previous market bubbles [9][21] - The introduction of supportive policies by the government, similar to Japan's ETF purchases, is expected to enhance market confidence and stabilize asset prices [12][25] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, the expectation is for continued benefits from a strengthening renminbi and increased international investment in Chinese assets [11][24] - The anticipated low-interest rate environment in the US is expected to influence global markets, with potential implications for commodity prices and stock valuations [10][23] - The ongoing bull market is characterized by supply-side dynamics, particularly in technology and growth sectors, which are expected to remain prominent themes [13][26]