2026年年度策略：供需重塑与资源再定价

Group 1: Copper - The supply side of copper is facing long-term capital expenditure shortages, with new project realization being difficult, leading to a potential zero or negative growth in global copper mine supply by 2026 [1][2] - On the demand side, the expansion of AI computing power is amplifying copper demand through the power system, and accelerated investment in the US power grid is causing a continuous supply-demand mismatch [1][2] - A conservative estimate indicates a global copper supply-demand gap of approximately 830,000 tons by 2026, necessitating a price increase to suppress demand and maintain balance, with prices expected to significantly rise, potentially exceeding $13,000 per ton [1][2] Group 2: Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from a continued cost reduction dividend by 2026, with supply constraints due to the production capacity ceiling in China and power restrictions [2] - Low inventory levels combined with diverse demand are likely to exceed expectations, with a positive outlook for the profitability of electrolytic aluminum [2] Group 3: Gold - The gold market is driven by a combination of cyclical and structural bull market factors, with overseas interest rate cuts continuing to drive cyclical ETF investment demand [2] - Concerns over the high deficit rate in the US are expected to sustain central bank gold purchases [2] Group 4: Silver - The silver price is anticipated to trend upward in the medium term, supported by stable overall supply and demand driven by industrial growth and investment demand fluctuations [2] - Key sectors such as photovoltaics and electronics are core supports for silver demand, with global silver inventories continuing to decline [2] Group 5: Lithium - The peak of capital expenditure in the lithium sector has passed, with a clear downward trend in capacity growth [3] - High investment in global energy storage is expected to sustain improvements in lithium supply and demand, with prices likely to rise beyond expectations [3] Group 6: Cobalt - The export quota for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo has been implemented, leading to a global tight supply situation [4] - The tight raw material situation is expected to persist, resulting in continued upward pressure on cobalt prices [4] Group 7: Rare Earths - Supply reforms and export competition are expected to resonate, with rising processing fees for imported heavy rare earths indicating a significant reduction in buyers within the industry [4] - The export market for magnetic materials is thriving, and the supply-demand dynamics in rare earths are expected to remain positive [4] Group 8: Tin - The global tin supply is frequently disrupted, with actions in Indonesia to eliminate illegal mining potentially offsetting production increases from Myanmar [4] - Low global tin ingot inventories suggest a widening supply-demand gap, with the tin-to-copper ratio expected to rise [4] Group 9: Tungsten - Tungsten prices are expected to continue reaching new highs due to supply reductions and global strategic stockpiling [4] - Strengthening economic recovery expectations and rising PMI are likely to enhance consumer demand, leading to sustained supply shortages and price increases [4] Group 10: Molybdenum - Molybdenum inventories remain low, with prices trending upward due to high demand in the steel sector and ongoing low inventories [4] - The impact of imported ore since October 2025 is expected to continue depleting stocks, leading to a return to an upward price trend [4] Group 11: Uranium - The uranium market is expected to maintain a supply-demand gap, with short-term recovery in primary supply driven by mine restarts, while long-term supply capabilities face continuous decline [5][6] - Demand for nuclear power is steadily increasing due to energy security and the transition to clean energy, further supporting the uranium market [5][6] Group 12: Steel - The steel industry is characterized by defensive attributes, with potential arbitrage opportunities arising from raw material supply easing and self-discipline in steelmaking [6] - The focus of demand has shifted from domestic real estate to export manufacturing, with diverse administrative measures expected to enhance supply-side policies by 2026 [6]