标普全球发布2026年展望：全球能源化工发展面临结构性分化

Core Insights - The S&P Global report highlights a structural divergence in the global energy and chemical industries, driven by the collision of AI revolution, energy transition, and geopolitical factors, indicating that while the industry shows resilience, the circumstances across different segments will vary significantly [1] Supply Chain Challenges - The report emphasizes the geopolitical-driven restructuring of supply chains and demand mismatches in the energy and commodities markets, with a notable shift in the global propane import market, where the U.S. market share has declined while the Middle East and Canada have gained advantages [2] - The global PVC industry faces dual pressures of production cuts and trade flow reversals, reshaping the supply chain due to high energy costs in Europe and potential overcapacity in Asia [2] - In the energy transition sector, the demand for stable electricity from AI data centers is prompting tech giants to reassess the strategic value of nuclear power, while outdated transmission networks hinder the large-scale integration of renewable energy [2] Investment Landscape - The macro credit environment shows stark contrasts within the energy and chemical sectors, with strong financing demand in areas like AI data centers, power facilities, critical mineral extraction, and LNG supply chains, while traditional chemical manufacturing faces refinancing pressures and weak demand [3] - The report warns of a "double-edged sword" effect surrounding the investment boom in AI and energy transition, where high market expectations could lead to credit tightening and capital pullback if economic benefits or technological advancements fall short [3] Emerging Market Opportunities and Challenges - Emerging market countries with key mineral resources are positioned to benefit directly from the surge in global electric vehicle and energy storage demand, while some developing economies show growth potential due to lower dependence on the U.S. market [4] - However, emerging markets aiming to develop manufacturing face significant challenges, including the need to invest in automation and AI technologies to enhance industrial competitiveness, as well as navigating external policies like carbon tariffs from developed economies [4] - The report identifies three key areas of opportunity: stable base-load energy supporting AI computing, critical resources driven by energy transition, and regional supply chain opportunities arising from geopolitical restructuring [4] Future Industry Dynamics - The report concludes that the era of universal industry prosperity is over, and future winners will be those who can accurately identify advantageous segments within the supply chain, adapt to changes in geopolitical trade, and effectively manage both energy and capital costs [5] - Understanding and leveraging the "non-uniformity" of the divergence trend will be crucial for capturing genuine growth opportunities in the evolving landscape [5]