甲醇：地缘扰动 价格走强

Supply and Demand Data - As of December 25, national operating rate is 77.99% (+0.36%), non-integrated operating rate is 70.71% (+0.49%) [1] - MTO operating rate is 85.66% (-0.34%), with Baofeng and Chengzhi reducing load [1] - As of December 25, inland cumulative inventory is 1.28 million tons, and port cumulative inventory is 14.05 million tons [1] Market Insights - Due to geopolitical disturbances, methanol futures have strengthened significantly, with decent trading volume throughout the day [1] - Last week, floating warehouses at ports successfully unloaded, leading to increased cargo volumes, while most regions have closed for backflow, resulting in significant inventory accumulation [1] - In Iran, gas restrictions have led to substantial production capacity shutdowns, with operating rates decreasing and expectations for reduced imports in the long term [1] - Although ports face inventory accumulation pressure in December, the supply-demand balance is expected to shift towards inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year [1] Price Trends - In Inner Mongolia, current transfer prices have decreased month-on-month, primarily due to high production levels and accumulated factory inventory [1] - The decline in coal prices is helping to restore company profits, with production levels expected to remain stable [1] - There are no significant highlights on the demand side, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1] - Future attention will be on the actual reduction in port arrivals and the subsequent inventory depletion situation [1]