经济回暖信号闪现 瑞郎多头发起逆袭？

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a slight decline, reflecting a weakening of the dollar's temporary advantage and a structural strength in the Swiss franc, with a cumulative drop of over 12% for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's leading indicator unexpectedly rose to 103.4 in December, up from 101.7, marking the highest level in over a year, indicating strong performance in manufacturing and construction [1] - Despite the improvement in supply-side indicators, there are signs of weakening demand-side metrics, suggesting a balanced interpretation of the Swiss economy [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price behavior of USD/CHF has been consistent since year-end, with a phase of stabilization around 0.7860 before returning above 0.79 [2] - The current position at 0.7930 is within the consolidation range following a prior rebound, with 0.7950 likely to attract technical traders' attention [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The MACD on the daily chart remains below the zero line, indicating a weakening downward trend, while the RSI around 44 suggests the market is not in an extreme oversold condition [2] - The significant decline of the USD/CHF over the past year has led to a reallocation of market weight between the "dollar cycle" and "safe-haven premium" [2] Group 4: Risk and Preference - In times of rising market concerns, the safe-haven attributes of the Swiss franc may enhance its strength, while risk appetite recovery may not immediately diminish the franc's strength due to inertia in interest rate expectations and capital allocation [2] - The oscillation around 0.79 reflects the simultaneous presence of two opposing forces: short-term resilience in USD data providing support, and long-term easing expectations suppressing upward movement [2]