降息预期拖累印尼盾走低

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian rupiah weakened against the US dollar, reversing a three-day upward trend, amid expectations of potential domestic interest rate cuts by the central bank [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - On January 2, the exchange rate for the Indonesian rupiah was approximately 16,720 rupiah per US dollar, marking a decline after a period of appreciation [1] - The rupiah depreciated about 4% throughout 2025, making it one of the weakest currencies in Asia [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Indonesia maintained the key interest rate at 4.75% during its third consecutive meeting in December, following a cumulative rate cut of 150 basis points from September 2024 to September 2025 [1] - There is potential for further monetary easing this year, as indicated by the central bank, in response to moderate inflation and the need to support economic growth following disasters in Sumatra [1] Group 3: Inflation and Market Sentiment - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming December inflation data, which, despite remaining within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%, has recently hovered near an 18-month high [1] - The global dollar index fell to around 98.2, reflecting a 9% decline over 2025, influenced by uncertainties in tariff policies, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and fiscal concerns [1]