Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has been on an upward trend for four consecutive days, closing up 0.15% at 156.8700, primarily due to the cautious pace of monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan raised the key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% in December, marking the second rate hike of the year aimed at curbing inflation [1] - The cautious approach to rate hikes and the lack of a clear timeline for future increases have disappointed the market, contributing to the yen's depreciation [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate initiated a new upward trend above the 156.20 level, breaking through the key resistance at 156.50, and successfully entered an upward range [1] - A temporary pullback occurred below 156.70, testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 155.74 to 156.99, but it quickly stabilized and formed a bullish flag pattern [2] - Key support levels are identified at 156.35 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with a significant risk of bearish selling if the rate falls below the 100-period simple moving average [2] - Short-term resistance is noted around 156.70, with a primary resistance level at 157.00; if the price holds above 157.00, it may further target 157.50 and potentially 158.00 [2]
日本央行加息节奏谨慎 美元/日元处上涨趋势
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-04 03:21