今冬明春西南电网面临“四期叠加”严峻考验 “四大预警机制”＋“四道防线”最大限度保障电力供应

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest Power Grid is expected to face significant challenges during the winter and spring of this year, with a combination of low temperatures, reduced water supply, and increased electricity demand leading to potential power shortages [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Forecast - From December to April, the Southwest region is predicted to experience an overall temperature drop of 1°C to 2°C, with a high likelihood of extreme cold weather [1] - Water supply is expected to be 10% to 20% lower than normal, with the maximum load for the entire grid reaching 75 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [1] - The total electricity consumption for the Southwest Power Grid is projected to be 181 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] - The total installed capacity of the grid is 128 million kilowatts, with hydropower generation capacity during the dry season being only one-third of that during the wet season [1] Group 2: Power Supply Management Measures - In the event of sufficient fuel supply, the power supply situation will be tight, with a peak power gap of approximately 5 million kilowatts [1] - If fuel supply is inadequate and external electricity purchases cannot be secured, there will be significant gaps in both power and electricity supply, complicating the supply situation [1] - The Southwest Power Grid will implement four major warning mechanisms and construct four defensive lines to enhance supply and demand management, focusing on preemptive management and ensuring the safety of the power grid and essential electricity supply [1] Group 3: Specific Warning Mechanisms - A coal supply warning mechanism will be established to track coal inventory and consumption trends daily, urging government coordination for coal storage and transportation [2] - A gas supply warning mechanism will monitor gas supply to gas-fired units, activating alerts when there is a risk of gas shortages [2] - A reservoir operation warning mechanism will track key reservoir water inflow and storage levels daily, with strict adherence to water usage plans [2] - An orderly electricity usage warning mechanism will monitor compliance with electricity usage regulations, providing timely feedback to relevant government departments [2]