美股点金丨圣诞行情或缺席，新年行情如何演绎

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has achieved double-digit growth for the third consecutive year, a trend last seen from 2019 to 2021, although the year-end performance has been disappointing [1] - Investors are actively seeking direction in the market, with strong corporate earnings and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence expected to boost the stock market, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [1] - The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 51.8, slightly above the market expectation of 51.7, indicating a positive outlook for manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently voted 9-3 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, but internal divisions among committee members persist regarding future monetary policy [3] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have cooled, with probabilities for rate cuts in upcoming meetings decreasing [3] - Economic indicators suggest a stable labor market, with initial jobless claims decreasing for three consecutive weeks, signaling relative stability despite seasonal fluctuations [2][4] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector's outlook is improving as trade policy uncertainties diminish, with expected growth in production across various sectors, particularly in electrical equipment driven by AI investments [4] - The automotive manufacturing sector's negative impact is expected to gradually lessen, contributing to a more favorable manufacturing environment [4] - The stock market's performance in the new year may be affected by low trading volumes and a lack of a traditional holiday rally, with significant declines in non-essential consumer goods and technology sectors [5] Group 4 - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are gradually rising, with the 10-year yield just below 4.20% and the 30-year yield reaching 4.872%, which could increase market volatility, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors [7] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the ADP employment report and non-farm payrolls, are anticipated to provide insights into the labor market and may influence market fluctuations [7] - The stock market's resilience in the face of rising yields remains uncertain, with potential implications for future trading dynamics as investors navigate various factors, including the "January effect" and capital gains selling [7]