黄金T+D下行 美失业预警或促激进降息

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights concerns about the U.S. economy facing challenges by 2026, with a potential rise in unemployment and a shrinking labor market, as warned by former Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - David Rosenberg predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will soon exceed 5% and may test 6% by the end of the year, based on current labor market data showing cracks [1] - The rise in the layoff rate to 1.2% in October marks a one-year high, while the hiring rate is declining sharply [1] - Rosenberg suggests that the severe contraction in the job market will significantly weaken the U.S. economic outlook, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive rate cuts in 2026 [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The recent trend in gold T+D prices shows a downward movement, with the latest quote at approximately 974 USD per ounce, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] - Short-term moving averages (5-day and 10-day) have formed a death cross, suggesting that bearish forces are dominant [1] - The MACD indicator shows expanding green bars, with the DIFF line crossing below the DEA line, confirming increased downward momentum [1] - Gold prices are testing a critical support level at 970 USD per ounce; a drop below this could lead to a decline towards the 950 USD region, while a rebound above 985 USD could alleviate downward pressure [1] - The RSI indicator is nearing the oversold zone but has not yet shown a reversal signal, indicating cautious market sentiment [1]