委内瑞拉如被美国暂时“接管”，市场为何看低油价

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela may lead to a significant shift in the global oil market, with potential implications for oil supply and prices. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Production and Impact - Venezuela, a key oil-producing nation with proven reserves of approximately 303 billion barrels, accounts for about 17% of global oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia [1] - Current oil production is around 1 million barrels per day, with exports at approximately 900,000 barrels per day, which could face disruption if the country continues to resist U.S. influence [2] - Historically, Venezuela's oil production peaked at 3.75 million barrels per day, indicating substantial long-term growth potential if stability is restored [3] Group 2: Market Predictions and Supply Dynamics - Analysts predict that if U.S. oil companies return to Venezuela, production could increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next two years, potentially raising the total global oil supply [3] - The international oil market is expected to experience oversupply, with oil prices projected to fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel by 2025, and further decline to $50 to $70 per barrel by 2026 [4] - The process of restructuring Venezuela's oil industry is anticipated to be lengthy, as past political instability and sanctions have led to a significant decline in production and aging infrastructure [4]