2026年1月生猪价格或先涨后跌 南北市场供需差异或推动南猪北调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices are expected to experience fluctuations in January 2026, with initial tight supply followed by a potential increase in supply later in the month, leading to a possible rise in prices after a brief decline [1][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In December 2025, the average price of lean pigs was 11.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.54% month-on-month, which was less than expected. Notably, from December 26 to December 30, the price increased from 11.63 yuan/kg to 12.47 yuan/kg, a rise of 0.84 yuan/kg [3]. - The supply of pigs in January 2026 is projected to show a slight decline due to a decrease in the number of breeding sows, despite some over-selling in December. The theoretical output for January is expected to be lower compared to December [3][5]. - The pig farming focus is concentrated in the southwestern and southern regions, with expected increases in supply from the south in January, while demand is anticipated to rise more significantly in the northern regions, particularly in central areas like Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui [5][7]. Regional Dynamics - The demand in the southern market is expected to decrease after the end of the pickling season, while the northern market will see an increase in demand, leading to a potential oversupply situation in the south and an expansion of price differences between the regions [5][7]. - The supply-demand relationship is expected to shift, with the southern market's influence on pricing potentially transferring to the central regions before the Spring Festival [1][7].