委内瑞拉，一个世纪的资源争夺与宿命

Core Viewpoint - The military intervention by the U.S. in Venezuela is a culmination of over a century of conflict over oil resources, highlighting the strategic importance of Venezuela's vast oil reserves, which are the largest in the world [1][3][19]. Group 1: Oil Wealth and Historical Context - Venezuela has proven oil reserves of approximately 300 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the global total, surpassing Saudi Arabia and the U.S. [3][5]. - The oil boom in the mid-20th century did not benefit the general population, leading to significant wealth disparity, with profits primarily flowing to international oil companies and a small elite [5]. - The "Bolivarian Revolution" initiated by Hugo Chávez in 1999 aimed to nationalize the oil industry, reclaiming resource sovereignty through reforms such as the Hydrocarbons Law of 2001, which mandated majority ownership by the state oil company PDVSA in joint ventures [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. Response and Geopolitical Tensions - U.S. interests were threatened by Venezuela's nationalization efforts, leading to sanctions and support for opposition movements, including a failed coup in 2002 [9][11]. - Following Chávez's death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro continued the nationalization policies, but U.S. relations deteriorated, especially after the 2018 elections, which the U.S. did not recognize [11][13]. - In 2025, the U.S. escalated its approach from economic sanctions to military threats, including a $50 million bounty on Maduro, reflecting the strategic importance of Venezuelan oil to U.S. interests [13][18]. Group 3: Impact on Global Oil Market - The military intervention is expected to disrupt Venezuela's oil exports, which have already plummeted from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day to around 1 million barrels per day, representing only 0.8% of global production [13][19]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the global oil market is currently characterized by oversupply, with the International Energy Agency projecting a supply increase of 3 million barrels per day in 2025, which may mitigate the impact of Venezuela's supply disruption [20][22]. - The U.S. military control over Venezuelan oil resources could weaken OPEC+'s influence in the global oil market, potentially altering production coordination among oil-producing nations [22]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The geopolitical turmoil is likely to create volatility in oil prices, with potential short-term spikes due to supply concerns, while long-term price pressures may remain limited due to existing supply surpluses [19][20]. - The military actions may also affect precious metals and shipping markets, with increased risk aversion likely driving up gold prices, which have already seen significant gains in 2025 [23][24]. - The situation may lead to increased logistics costs for energy and commodities due to military blockades, impacting supply chains and market dynamics [24].