一娃难求→部分破发！“盲盒界的爱马仕”发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand prices of Labubu blind boxes from Pop Mart have experienced a significant decline, with some prices dropping over 80% in the past six months, indicating a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics [2][4][10]. Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - The prices of previously rare Labubu hidden variants have plummeted, with the "Ben Wo" hidden variant dropping from nearly 3000 yuan in June 2025 to around 530 yuan, a decline of over 80% [7][10]. - The average transaction price for a box of Labubu plush keychains has decreased from approximately 1800 yuan to about 1022 yuan, reflecting a drop of over 40% [4]. - The increase in supply from Pop Mart, which has expanded its production capacity to ten times that of the previous year, has contributed to the cooling of market demand and the subsequent price drop [13]. Group 2: Supply Chain and International Expansion - Pop Mart has deepened its overseas supply chain, with partners in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico beginning shipments, establishing six global production bases [2][17]. - The company aims to diversify its revenue and optimize costs through international expansion, which could lead to a valuation recovery [18][19]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The toy industry is facing challenges such as IP aging and market saturation, which could impact revenue if new competitive IPs are not introduced [14]. - Despite recent stock price adjustments, Pop Mart's revenue remains strong, with a reported 245% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, driven by both domestic and international sales [16]. - Analysts suggest that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to sustainable growth, with a focus on cultural and brand development in international markets [18][19].