2026年货币政策延续“适度宽松”：短中长期多层次流动性调节更趋精准 政策利率或有1-2次降息空间

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's monetary policy returned to a stance of "moderate easing," focusing on guiding expectations and improving transmission channels, with a more precise and prudent approach to operations [1][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The liquidity management system in 2025 was characterized by a multi-layered approach, utilizing tools such as reverse repos, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and government bond transactions [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) adjusted the MLF bidding model to a "fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, multiple price bidding" format, which further diminished the policy interest rate's anchoring role [2]. - The net MLF issuance in 2025 reached 1.161 trillion yuan, with a total net liquidity injection of 4.961 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Adjustments - The PBOC implemented a downward adjustment of 0.25 percentage points on structural monetary policy tool rates and a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, effectively reducing the overall financing costs [3]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in November, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down 3 basis points year-on-year [3]. - The frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts in 2025 were lower than in 2024, with only one reduction of 10 basis points for the 7-day reverse repo rate [3]. Group 3: Structural Support and Focus Areas - The monetary policy continued to emphasize support for key sectors, including technology innovation and small enterprises, with increased quotas for re-lending aimed at these areas [3][8]. - The third quarter report indicated that loans for technology, green projects, and inclusive finance grew faster than the overall loan growth rate [3]. - The focus on structural monetary policy tools is expected to persist, with significant investments anticipated in technology and consumer sectors [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook for 2026 - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a "moderate easing" stance, with an emphasis on precise support and collaboration with fiscal policies [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the social financing scale in 2026 may exceed that of 2025, driven by increased government debt financing [7]. - There is potential for 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, with a possible reduction of 10-20 basis points, while the focus will remain on maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship [7][8].