一娃难求→部分破发，“盲盒界的爱马仕”发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand prices of Labubu blind boxes from Pop Mart have experienced a significant decline, with some prices dropping over 80% within six months, indicating a fundamental reversal in supply and demand dynamics [1][12][6]. Group 1: Price Decline - Labubu hidden variants have seen their second-hand prices plummet, with the "Ben Wo" hidden variant dropping from nearly 3000 yuan in June 2025 to around 530 yuan, a decline of over 80% [6][12]. - The average transaction price for a box of Labubu plush keychains fell from approximately 1800 yuan to about 1022 yuan, a decrease of over 40% [3][12]. - The lowest transaction price for a single blind box, originally priced at 99 yuan, has dropped to 60 yuan, below the original price [9][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pop Mart has significantly increased its production capacity, with monthly output now exceeding ten times that of the same period last year, reaching around 30 million units [12][16]. - The increase in supply has led to a cooling of demand for certain IPs, contributing to the decline in second-hand prices [12][16]. - The market has shifted from speculative buying to a more rational consumption approach, with many resellers halting purchases of Labubu products [12][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Pop Mart is expanding its overseas supply chain, with new shipments from partners in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, indicating a deepening global presence [14][16]. - The company is expected to enter a phase of valuation recovery if it can continue to diversify its revenue and optimize costs through international expansion [17][18]. - Financial data shows that Pop Mart's overall revenue grew by 245% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [15][18].