Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-04 07:30Core Viewpoint - The secondary market prices for Labubu blind boxes from Pop Mart have experienced a significant decline, with some prices dropping over 80% within six months, indicating a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics [1][4][9] Price Decline of Labubu Blind Boxes - The average transaction price for the Labubu "Heart Password" series has fallen from approximately 1800 yuan at launch to about 1022 yuan, a decline of over 40% [1][14] - The price of the "Self" hidden version from the "Front High Energy" series peaked at nearly 3000 yuan in June 2025 but has since plummeted to around 530 yuan, representing a drop of over 80% [4][17] - The number of Labubu listings on platforms like Xianyu and Chidao has increased, with many popular items seeing continuous price reductions [6][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pop Mart has significantly increased its production capacity, with monthly output now exceeding ten times that of the same period last year, reaching around 30 million units [8][21] - The company has implemented a large-scale replenishment strategy following the global pre-sale of the Labubu 3.0 series, which has led to a substantial increase in market supply [21][22] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The retreat of speculative sentiment has contributed to the decline in secondary market prices, with reports of second-hand dealers halting purchases of Labubu products [9][22] - Industry experts suggest that Pop Mart may face challenges related to IP aging, as market fatigue and increased competition have led to a decrease in the popularity of Labubu [22] Financial Performance and Growth Prospects - Despite the market downturn, Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 has increased by 245% to 250%, with significant growth in both domestic (185% to 190%) and overseas (365% to 370%) markets [10][23] - The company is actively expanding its overseas supply chain, with new partnerships in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, which may support revenue diversification and cost optimization [11][24] - Analysts predict that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, with future revenue drivers expected to shift from single blockbuster products to a more diversified portfolio [12][25]