芝商所上调合约保证金 COMEX白银等待动能

Core Viewpoint - The COMEX silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with speculative capital and retail investors driving prices higher amid a shortage of physical silver in London and New York. The price of silver futures has increased by 83% since November 2025, reaching a peak of $74.21 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX silver futures closed at $72.09 per ounce, up 1.57%, with a trading range between $70.52 and $74.21 per ounce [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the initial margin requirements for COMEX silver futures contracts three times in the past two weeks, with the new margin for a non-high-risk 5,000-ounce silver futures contract set at $32,500 and for a high-risk contract at $35,750 [3]. - Historical patterns indicate that significant margin increases by the CME, combined with tightening monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, have previously curtailed silver price surges, but the current context of potential Fed rate cuts raises questions about the effectiveness of these margin hikes [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened security risks in the region, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices due to geopolitical instability [3]. - The Venezuelan government claims that the U.S. military actions aim to seize the country's oil and mineral resources, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The silver market is showing signs of a bearish "buy exhaustion pattern," with prices significantly retreating and closing near daily lows [4]. - A notable bearish "key reversal pattern" has appeared on the daily chart, indicating potential challenges for bullish momentum [4]. - Key price levels to watch include resistance at $74.21 and $75.00, with support levels at $72.00 and $70.515 [4].