短期盘面资金博弈加剧 焦炭期价或维持震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping to a low of 1679.0 yuan and closing at 1693.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Coking coal futures have experienced intensified capital competition, with the market showing signs of increased volatility [2]. - The fourth round of price reductions for coking coal is expected to be implemented starting January 1, which has led to coking enterprises facing losses, although the extent of these losses is not severe [3]. - Supply from coking plants has slightly decreased, with an average daily output of 627,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons month-on-month, while steel mills continue to reduce production [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is under pressure with coking plant operating rates declining, but inventory levels remain high, with steel mill inventories at 6.26 million tons and port inventories at 1.87 million tons [4]. - Demand from steel mills is stable, with a slight increase in inventory replenishment, but overall demand remains weak [4]. - The market anticipates potential stimulus policies, which may influence future price movements despite current fundamental pressures [2].