Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-04 08:31Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by a significant re-evaluation of China's technological capabilities and the complexities of US-China relations, alongside resilient external demand and an explosion in AI inference demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance and Expectations - In 2025, the median return of actively managed public funds is projected to be 28.2%, ranking third in the past decade and sixth in the last twenty years [1][12] - The overall market performance can be divided into five phases, with the total return of the CSI All A Shares Index at 27.7% and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 23.4% for the year [2][13] - The first phase shows a brief market excitement before the Spring Festival, while the second phase sees a significant rally in the Hang Seng Tech Index due to a shift in narrative regarding China's autonomous technology [2][13] Group 2: Structural Bull Market Dynamics - The "big money" in the structural bull market comes from substantial expected differences and performance growth, primarily driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations regarding external demand and the AI industry's evolution [3][14] - The market's perception of external demand shifted from pessimism to optimism throughout the year, culminating in a consensus on external demand exposure by year-end [3][14] - The AI industry's demand surge has filled gaps during transitional phases, leading to significant valuation recoveries for key companies [4][14] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Incremental liquidity is viewed as a result of the expected difference and performance realization, rather than a primary driver of market growth [5][15] - The net inflow of ETFs was 230.6 billion yuan for the year, indicating that liquidity does not directly correlate with market index increases [5][15] - The market is not lacking in funds but rather in investable assets and imaginative space [5][15] Group 4: Future Expectations and Strategies - The largest expected difference for 2026 will stem from balancing external and internal demand, with a trend towards taxing external trade and subsidizing domestic demand [6][16] - The market sentiment at the end of 2025 was relatively restrained, suggesting a higher probability of upward market movement in early 2026 [7][17] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and renewable energy [9][19]