Nifty may hit 29,500 by Q1 2027 on earnings rebound; Antique’s top picks include ICICI Bank and SBI

Core Viewpoint - Antique projects CY26 as a potential turning point for Indian equities, anticipating a recovery in corporate profits and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows, with a target of 29,500 for the Nifty index, implying a 13% upside from current levels [1][13] Earnings Outlook - Nifty earnings are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 16% over FY26–28, significantly higher than the 7% CAGR recorded over FY24–26 [1][13] - The brokerage emphasizes an earnings-led market recovery rather than relying on multiple expansions, with corporate earnings positively correlated with wholesale price inflation and nominal GDP growth, both expected to normalize in FY27 [3][13] - A broad-based recovery in profits is anticipated, particularly in sectors such as electronics manufacturing services, telecom, industrials, and retail, while oil and gas, IT services, power utilities, FMCG, and automobiles are expected to lag [3][13] Capital Expenditure and Financials - The capital expenditure theme is expected to rebound after two years of slowdown, with favorable conditions across global monetary policies and domestic support [7][13] - Financials are a core focus, with expectations for banks to enter an earnings upcycle in CY26, supported by a strong domestic macro backdrop and the nearing end of the rate-cut cycle [8][13] - Public sector banks are favored due to comparable growth metrics to private lenders while trading at a 45% discount [8][13] Consumption Sector and Mid/Small-Cap Stocks - The broader consumption sector is viewed with caution due to high valuations and competitive pressures, although select discretionary segments like alcoholic beverages and hotels are seen positively [9][13] - Mid- and small-cap stocks are expected to show earnings growth that outpaces the Nifty over the next two to three years, driven by domestic cyclicals and increased capex activity [10][13] Stock Picks and Market Flows - Top large-cap stock picks include ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Hindustan Aeronautics, while mid-cap and small-cap preferences include Siemens Energy India and Chalet Hotels, respectively [11][13] - After a significant outflow of $17.5 billion from Indian equities in CY25, Antique anticipates stabilization and potential revival of FPI flows in CY26, supported by low FPI ownership and reasonable valuations [11][13] - Despite trading at a premium to historical averages, valuations are expected to be sustained due to lower bond yields and sectoral divergence, with many Nifty 500 stocks having corrected over 20% from their highs [12][13]