制造业PMI“重回50”，有何不寻常？

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, reaching 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity after eight months of decline [1][2]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The December manufacturing PMI's increase is notable, rising 0.9 percentage points month-on-month, contrary to the typical seasonal decline [1]. - Key indicators contributing to this increase include the production expectations index, production index, and purchasing volume, all showing significant improvements compared to historical averages [1]. - The rise in new orders index since June indicates a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing investment and boosting private sector activity [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - GDP growth is projected to exceed 4.5% in Q4 2025, driven by increased production capacity and improved market conditions for high-quality enterprises [3]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival has allowed companies to adjust production schedules, mitigating disruptions typically caused by holiday breaks [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The December PMI reflects a rebound in downstream demand and positive trends in high-tech manufacturing [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, indicating a return to expansion, while medium-sized enterprises approached the critical point at 49.8%. However, small enterprises saw a decline to 48.6% [4]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The government has initiated proactive macroeconomic policies, including early issuance of local government debt limits and investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [5]. - The focus on long-term strategic considerations in policy adjustments aims to ensure sustained recovery while allowing for flexibility in future measures [6].